MAB Quarterly Review Q1 2026 - Cautious - Flipbook - Page 15
Evidence
The evidence for staying invested rather than trying
to time the markets is strong. Since the beginning of
the year 2000, investing in the US equity market, for
example, you only have to miss the best 60 days in the
market, and you would have made a loss. That is less
than 1% of the available trading days over this period.
In order for an investor to have captured the
full potential return of £78,045 from the initial
investment of £10,000, they would have needed
to stay invested through those 26 years. Capturing
the best 60 days but also capturing the worst 60
days. Understanding this is critical in becoming
a successful and con昀椀dent long-term investor.
2025 in focus
However, what most clients are focused on is the
current environment and how it might be different
this time around. The media plays a signi昀椀cant role
in how we feel, as the vast majority of headlines are
designed to trigger a negative emotional response;
words such as fall, tumble, and collapse are more
impactful than positive words. We are told about the
billions wiped off stock markets, but not when they
are added back on.
Value
Annual return
Staying invested
£78,045
8.2%
Missing the best 10 days
£37,679
5.2%
Missing the best 20 days
£21,903
3.1%
Missing the best 30 days
£15,067
1.6%
Missing the best 60 days
£7,007
-1.4%
This is the job of the media, but it is our role to unwind
the emotive biases and provide reassurance during
these turbulent times. Last year was a case in point,
with the inauguration of President Trump and the start
of what has become a rearrangement of geopolitics.
The rule of staying invested was clearly evidenced
last year. There were many situations that could
have been cause for alarm, particularly as President
Trump started to assert his style on global politics.
This came to a head with his Liberation Day
announcements of global tariffs in April last year,
which was the cause of a signi昀椀cant short-term drop
in global equity markets.
Looking at 2025 in isolation, there were 16 days
in which the market moved by more than +1%.
For this illustration, we are going to look at just
the10 best days in the US equity market over
2025; all bar one were in the 昀椀rst quarter, and the
top three were centred around President Trump’s
Liberation Day announcement.
If you have invested £10,000 at the start of 2025
into the US market, that would have grown by
£934. However, missing just the best 10 days
would have resulted in a loss of £2,140.
Total return in pounds sterling over period
01/01/2000 to 31/12/2025. Based on
initial investment of £10,000 into the S&P
500 index. The information provided is for
illustrative purposes only and does not
represent the past performance of any
particular investment. It is not possible
to invest directly into an index.
Total return in pounds sterling over period
01/01/2025 to 31/12/2025. The information
provided is for illustrative purposes only and
does not represent the past performance of
any particular investment. It is not possible
to invest directly into an index.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Financial Express Analytics
and YOU Asset Management.
Source: Yahoo Finance, Financial Express Analytics
and YOU Asset Management.
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